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Real Estate Bubble Fallacies

April 11th, 2009

digital_photography_online_11There are a number of fallacies about residential real estate that either affirm the belief in perpetually rising prices or minimize the fears of a price decline. These fallacies generally revolve around a perceived shortage of housing or a belief that the higher prices are justified by current or future economic conditions.

In every asset bubble people will claim the prices are supported by fundamentals even at the peak of the mania. When rental cashflow models fail, which they do during the rally of a housing bubble, the arguments justifying prices turn to an owner’s ability to make payments. The argument is that everyone is rich, and everyone is making enough money to support current prices. Data proves this argument to be a fantasy.

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